In July 2026, the repeat-sales house price index published by Lietuvos bankas (the Bank of Lithuania) was 18.10% higher than in July 2025. That makes an eye-catching headline. It does not mean that every Lithuanian apartment rose in value by 18.1% over the year, or that you can automatically add that percentage to last year's estimate of your home's value.
What exactly did the Bank of Lithuania measure in July 2026?
The Bank of Lithuania's repeat-sales index, known locally as PSBKI, compares at least two sales of the same home. This reduces the distortion caused when more expensive properties sell in one month and more modest ones in another. Its coverage is deliberately narrow: it includes existing apartments, and excludes individual houses and newly built homes. The series is smoothed using a three-month moving average, so the July figure is not simply a snapshot of transactions completed that month.
In July 2026, the annual change was 14.74% in Vilnius city municipality, 25.02% in Kaunas and 15.96% in Klaipėda. Across Lithuania outside those three cities, it was 22.32%. These differences show why the national figure of 18.10% cannot be applied to an individual city. Equally, 22.32% is not the result for every smaller municipality: it combines very different areas.
Two official indices can produce different figures
The quarterly house price index published by Lithuania's State Data Agency and Eurostat covers new and existing homes bought by households across the country, including both apartments and houses. For the first quarter of 2026, the latest period available when this article was prepared, Lithuania's index rose by 3.3% compared with the fourth quarter of 2025 and by 11.9% compared with the first quarter of 2025. This does not contradict the 18.1% figure: the period, frequency, coverage and method differ.
Under Lithuania's official methodology, transactions are grouped by municipality, locality, construction year, property type, number of rooms and completion status. This reduces the effect of changes in the mix of homes sold. Internationally, hedonic models are also used to adjust statistically for observable property characteristics. Still, none of these indices inspects your kitchen, the view from your window or your property documents.
An index, a price and a value answer different questions
| Term | What it tells you | What it does not tell you |
|---|---|---|
| Bank of Lithuania repeat-sales index | How prices changed for existing apartments sold more than once | What a particular apartment, house or new development is worth today |
| State Data Agency and Eurostat house price index | How prices for new and existing homes bought by households changed over a quarter | The value of property in a particular city or at a particular address |
| Asking price | What the seller is currently asking | Whether a buyer will pay that amount |
| Sale price | The amount the parties ultimately agree | Whether another nearby home is worth the same |
| A valuer's market valuation | A professional opinion of value on a specific date, based on comparable sales and the property's characteristics | A guaranteed sale price or a bank's promise to finance the whole amount |
| Estimated market value | A supported range within which a willing buyer might complete a purchase | One fixed number that applies in every circumstance |
The same €150,000 starting point in three cities
Suppose three owners each considered their apartment worth €150,000 in July 2025. Mechanically applying the July 2026 city indices would produce €172,110 in Vilnius, €187,530 in Kaunas and €173,940 in Klaipėda. These calculations illustrate different rates of market growth. They are not valuations of three homes: we know nothing about their neighbourhoods, construction dates, floors, internal refurbishment, building renovation, energy ratings or parking.
For a seller, a more useful starting point is an analysis of actual comparable sales. For a Vilnius property, competition within the specific market segment matters as well as citywide indicators; our guide to selling in Vilnius explores this further. The same reasoning applies when selling an apartment in Kaunas: a city index of 25.02% does not justify raising every asking price by a quarter.
When does the valuer's figure matter more than the index?
When a buyer needs a mortgage, the valuation directly affects the funding available. The Bank of Lithuania explains that the loan amount is calculated against the lower of the property's assessed value and its agreed purchase price. A strong index cannot fill a funding gap caused by a lower valuation. Our separate guide explains what to do when the mortgage valuation falls below the purchase price.
A valuation report does not predict the price that will ultimately be agreed in the notarial sale agreement. It is a professional opinion of market value at a particular date, supported by the comparisons available then. The eventual price also depends on the time allowed for selling, presentation, negotiations, the reliability of the buyer's financing and competing properties.
How to use an index without relying on it too heavily
- Check the date, comparison period and coverage: monthly or quarterly, apartments or all homes.
- Choose the most relevant geographical area, while keeping a citywide measure separate from an individual valuation.
- Select recent completed sales of homes with similar buildings, floor areas and condition, alongside active listings.
- Develop a value range, then decide separately on the opening asking price and your negotiating limit.
- Assess the response after the first viewings. For an unusual property or a purchase with a mortgage, involve a valuer.
Even an accurate valuation does not guarantee a successful sale. Preparation, photographs, clear information and the negotiation process must help buyers understand the price. You will find practical ways to do that in our guide to selling your property for more.
Official data and methodology
- Bank of Lithuania repeat-sales index table — July 2026 data, updated on 12 August 2026.
- Bank of Lithuania repeat-sales index metadata — coverage, smoothing and the Case–Shiller method.
- State Data Agency price indicators portal — house price index data and publication dates.
- State Data Agency house price index methodology — coverage and calculation of Lithuania's official index.
- Eurostat house prices for the first quarter of 2026 — comparisons between Lithuania, the EU and the euro area.
- Eurostat housing price statistics methodology — quality adjustment and international comparability.
- Bank of Lithuania information for mortgage applicants — the relationship between value, price and financing.
Frequently asked questions
Does 18.1% growth mean my home rose in value by the same amount?
No. The 18.1% figure is the Bank of Lithuania's annual repeat-sales index change for July 2026, covering existing apartments sold more than once. The change for your home depends on its city, neighbourhood, building, condition and other characteristics.
What period does the 18.1% figure cover?
It compares the price level in July 2026 with July 2025. The Bank of Lithuania published the figure on 12 August 2026 and smooths the index series using a three-month moving average.
Why do the figures for Vilnius, Kaunas and Klaipėda differ?
Local demand, supply and the pattern of repeat apartment sales differ. In July 2026, the annual index change was 14.74% in Vilnius, 25.02% in Kaunas and 15.96% in Klaipėda. These figures are not average home prices in those cities.
Can I simply multiply my original purchase price by the index?
That provides only a rough scenario for market movements. The index does not know whether you refurbished the home, whether the building was renovated or whether the surroundings changed. The result is not a current sale price or valuation.
How does the Bank of Lithuania's index differ from Eurostat's?
The Bank of Lithuania's monthly index uses transactions involving the same existing apartment sold at least twice. The quarterly State Data Agency and Eurostat index covers new and existing homes bought by households, including apartments and houses.
Is the asking price the market value?
No. An asking price is the amount the seller advertises the property for. Comparable completed sales, adjustments for the property and actual buyer responses provide stronger support for market value. The parties agree the final sale price through negotiation.
Does a valuer's figure guarantee that sale price?
No. A valuation report gives an opinion of market value at a particular date using available comparisons. It matters for financing but does not guarantee that a buyer will pay that amount or that a bank will approve the requested loan.
How can I estimate the market value of an individual home?
Choose recent comparable sales nearby and adjust for the building, floor area, floor level, condition, layout, energy efficiency and extra features. Then compare current listings and consider buyers’ responses. An individual valuation is useful for an unusual property.